Canadian Dollar at a Crossroads: Oil, Policy and Global Risk Drive USD/CAD Moves

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is showing increasing volatility as multiple forces collide, oil price swings, a central bank pivot, and global risk sentiment all play into the USD/CAD cross rate. Recent data and policy shifts suggest the Loonie’s path is far from clear.

Oil Prices and Terms of Trade

Canada’s economy is heavily exposed to commodities, especially crude oil. A decline in oil prices such as recent weakness in WTI and Canadian benchmarks has dented the Loonie’s outlook. For example, USD/CAD traded around 1.4030 after the oil price slip.

Moreover, strategy notes indicate the depreciation of the CAD in Q4 is tied to weaker terms of trade.

Bank of Canada Moves & Policy Divergence

The Bank of Canada (BoC) cut its target overnight rate to 2.25 % on October 29 2025.

The statement signalled that the current level is appropriate unless inflation or growth deviates a tone more hawkish than expected.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains cautious on cuts, narrowing the interest-rate differential between the two countries and reducing one of the CAD’s traditional support pillars.

Risk Sentiment and Technical Factors

Risk-on sentiment benefits commodity-linked currencies like the CAD, and recent reports show the Loonie hit its strongest level since late October when risk appetite improved.

At the same time, headlines warn that renewed global oversupply of oil could pressure the CAD further.

What This Means for USD/CAD

• Support for CAD: Oil rebound, stable commodity demand, and potential BoC tightening could lift the CAD.

• Pressure on CAD: Persistently weak oil, BoC easing bias, and renewed USD strength may drive USD/CAD toward 1.42+ territory.

• Investors should watch oil benchmark trends, BoC forward-guidance, and USD broad index moves.

The Canadian dollar is not firing on all cylinders. Oil price instability, shifting central-bank tone, and global liquidity dynamics are combining to make USD/CAD one of the more actively traded and uncertain major crosses in late 2025.

For traders, the catalyst list is clear: oil + BoC + USD moves. Each could trigger significant CAD swings.