EUR/USD Under Pressure as USD Weakens, But Risks Remain

The EUR/USD pair entered a sensitive zone today as traders digested softer U.S. inflation prints, improving trade sentiment and shifting rate expectations. In parallel, the euro zone remains weighed by structural economic issues.

The move

Late Sunday/Monday, U.S. futures and FX markets priced in greater odds of a U.S. rate cut, this weakened the dollar against major currencies.

Data suggest the euro held ground near ~1.16 range.

Key drivers

• U.S. inflation softness (which improves outlook for Fed easing) tends to weaken the USD.

• Euro zone economy remains sluggish, the European Central Bank (ECB) has less firepower to raise rates compared to the Fed’s potential to cut, meaning the rate differential remains a headwind for the euro.

• Risk on flows (see above) bring capital into higher beta currencies, sometimes aiding the euro but any renewed growth or policy concern in Europe can reverse this quickly.

Implications

• For euro zone importers/exporters, a weaker dollar (higher EUR/USD) improves locals buying U.S. goods, but could hurt exports if Europe weakens.

• For portfolio flows: positions in EUR denominated assets become slightly more attractive with a weak dollar, but must be balanced against structural euro risks.

• For risk management: if USD strength returns (due to a geo shock or weaker growth), long EUR/USD positions could face rapid unwinds.

What to monitor

• ECB meeting/commentary for signs of divergence or unexpected easing.

• U.S. inflation (CPI) and jobs data potential trigger for further dollar moves.

EUR/USD is caught between a weaker dollar and structural euro headwinds. While the current setup favours modest euro strength, the path remains fragile and highly data dependent.