Forex Weekly Technical Outlook: July 13–19, 2025

Introduction The global forex market enters another critical week with traders closely monitoring U.S. inflation figures, trade policy shifts, and central bank signals. With currency pairs moving in tight ranges or preparing for breakout levels, this week presents pivotal technical scenarios for major forex and commodity markets.

Key Takeaways

• Gold remains stuck in a wide consolidation channel between $3,200 and $3,500

• EUR/USD struggles to hold above 1.1600 amid dollar strength

• Silver shows bullish momentum above $37.50

• USD/JPY tests psychological resistance at 148

• DAX consolidates after bullish breakout

• USD/CHF finds solid ground at 0.7900

• USD/MXN stable above 18.60, but upside momentum remains limited

• U.S. CPI and trade headlines will drive next wave of volatility
  

Gold Trades Sideways, But Bulls Still in the Game Gold continues to trade within a defined consolidation range of $3,200 to $3,500. Tariff-related volatility, weakening dollar sentiment, and softening Fed rate cut bets all influence gold’s indecisiveness. For bulls to regain control, gold must reclaim $3,500 with strong volume. On the downside, a clean break below $3,200 would signal a bearish reversal and re-open $3,000 as a technical target.

EUR/USD Weakens Near Support Levels The euro-dollar pair is trending lower, unable to gain traction above 1.1700 and now testing support at 1.1600. With strong U.S. inflation data expected, traders anticipate a firmer dollar. A break below 1.1600 could drive the pair toward 1.1500 in the short term. Resistance remains firm at 1.1900, with little bullish momentum showing on daily charts.

Silver Eyes $40 Mark as Buyers Dominate Silver remains in bullish formation after breaching its previous resistance near $37.50. Price action is now targeting the $40 psychological mark. Pullbacks toward $36.80 may present fresh long opportunities. Bullish momentum indicators show a strong trend continuing this week.

USD/JPY Consolidates Near 148 Amid CPI Caution The dollar-yen pair is trading between 147.00 and 148.50. With investors awaiting U.S. CPI data, a breakout above 148.50 could initiate a run toward 150.00. Conversely, a dip back below 147.00 would invalidate bullish pressure and expose 145.50 as next support.

USD/CHF Holds the Line at 0.7900 After recent selling pressure, the USD/CHF pair has found footing around 0.7900. Technical indicators show a rebound toward 0.8000 is likely, especially if the dollar finds strength post-inflation data. Above 0.8100 would open room toward 0.8250, while failure to hold 0.7900 risks a move back to 0.7750.

USD/MXN Sideways but Watch for Breakout Dollar-peso trades above the 18.60 support but has struggled to break through 19.00. A daily close above 19.00 would reignite bullish sentiment, while a move below 18.50 exposes 18.20. Mexican inflation data and U.S. rate expectations will play a key role.

DAX Consolidation After Breakout Germany’s DAX index recently broke above 24,500 but is now pulling back and consolidating. If bulls hold the 23,800–24,000 region, a retest of the recent high is likely. However, sustained weakness may drag it back toward 23,000 support.

Conclusion This week’s trading environment is poised for elevated volatility, driven by U.S. macro data, shifting trade policy, and central bank commentary. Traders should monitor breakouts closely and adapt to quick directional moves. Key technical levels across major forex pairs and metals remain in play, offering both short- and long-term trading setups.