Jefferies: U.S. Policy Realignment Reshapes the Global Critical Minerals Race

Jefferies analysts say the U.S. is entering a new phase in its critical-minerals strategy, with policy shifts aimed at reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains and securing access to rare materials vital for energy transition and defense.

The Policy Pivot

The report highlights how the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Defense Production Act (DPA), and the Department of Energy’s loan programs are working together to reshape global mining and processing priorities. Under these initiatives, U.S. agencies have begun fast-tracking funding for lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth projects across the Americas, Australia, and Africa.
“The U.S. is now treating minerals policy as national security, not industrial policy,” Jefferies noted. “That shift changes everything from financing dynamics to geopolitical alignment.”

Winners and Losers

According to Jefferies, companies positioned in non Chinese jurisdictions stand to gain the most.

• Albemarle, MP Materials, and Livent were cited as key beneficiaries of the domestic supply push strategy.
• Meanwhile, European and Canadian miners could benefit from easier access to U.S. financing partnerships.
• Chinese firms, by contrast, may face tougher scrutiny under export controls and foreign entity restrictions.

The analysis underscores how the U.S. strategy is redirecting capital flows, with Western governments now competing directly to secure supplies once dominated by China.

Supply Chain Implications

Even as demand surges, bottlenecks remain. Jefferies estimates that current projects under development will still cover less than half of expected 2030 demand for lithium and nickel unless new capacity is accelerated.

Processing capacity particularly for rare earth separation and battery grade refining continues to be the weakest link in Western supply chains.

To counter this, Washington has expanded partnerships with Chile, Australia, and several African nations, while encouraging U.S. based refiners to scale up domestically.

The world’s next big commodities race isn’t about oil it’s about lithium, nickel, and rare earths.

With geopolitical competition accelerating, the nations that master mineral independence will define the pace and cost of the energy transition.