Nvidia and ASML Lead the AI Hardware Surge While Intel Lags Behind

The semiconductor landscape in 2025 is converting its momentum into stark divergence. While Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) and ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) have emerged as front runners in the global AI hardware chain, Intel Corporation (INTC) is falling behind weighed by tightening export constraints, product delays and structural headwinds.

The Leaders, Nvidia & ASML

• Nvidia continues to surprise. Analysis shows it delivered nearly 94% growth in Q3 revenue on an annual basis, driven by its Blackwell-architecture AI chips and data center deployments.

• ASML posted €7.52 billion in Q3 orders and reaffirmed full-year growth above 15%, benefiting from its unique position in EUV lithography machines essential to advanced chip manufacturing.

• Analysts view both companies as core beneficiaries of the AI build-out: hardware, tooling, infrastructure.

  For instance, ASML is described as “possibly one of the decade’s biggest semiconductor winners” thanks to its tech moat.

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The Laggard, Intel

• Intel’s turnaround has been delayed. While it is attempting to reshape via IDM 2.0 (its integrated device manufacturing revival) and new node investment, it faces more competition, higher cost of capital, and less clarity in positioning versus Nvidia/ASML.

• With pricing power shifting to more specialised nodes, general purpose chip makers like Intel risk being squeezed between premium players and low cost foundries.

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Market Implications

• Investors are applying a barbell strategy, heavy exposure to AI infrastructure leaders (Nvidia, ASML) paired with selective exposure in software or control-layer companies, avoiding more general chip stories until clarity returns.

• Regionally, supply chain moves matter: the U.S. remains dominant for AI hardware innovation, while European tool-makers (like ASML) and Asian foundries (Taiwan/Korea) are key subcontractors.

• Valuations are rich for the top names both Nvidia and ASML trade on forward-multiple marks that embed high expectations, meaning execution must follow or downside risk grows.

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Risks to Monitor

• Export controls and geopolitical tensions (especially U.S. China) remain central. ASML’s access to Chinese markets, for example, could be curtailed further.

• Component shortages or supply disruptions such as extreme tightness in advanced EUV tooling or packaging services could bounce the cycle.

• Market sentiment is concentrated, when a few names drive large parts of the index, broad market risk rises from shallow breadth.

Tech stocks aren’t rallying as a monolithic group the winners are those near the metal of AI infrastructure (Nvidia, ASML), while legacy players like Intel sit on the sidelines.

For now, the message is clear, invest in the rails, not just the ride.

If AI is the megatrend, then the next decade’s gains will come largely from those manufacturing the tracks, not just riding the train.