Weekly Forex Forecast: DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, XAU/USD (August 4–8, 2025)

Introduction As we head into the week of August 4–8, 2025, the forex market centers on key technical levels and upcoming economic data. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) continues to set the tone, while major currency pairs—EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF—are at technical crossroads as traders await PMI releases. XAU/USD (gold) is also a focus amid dollar pressure.

Key Takeaways

• The DXY remains weak, failing to break resistance at 97.70; support lies near 97.30.

• EUR/USD trades near key support levels 1.1275 and 1.1200; upside risk toward 1.1500 if data surprises.

• GBP/USD has formed a bull flag; clear break above 1.3440 could open path to 1.3630–1.3750.

• USD/CHF remains bearish, testing support near 0.7918; resistance capped at 0.7970–0.7980.

• Gold (XAU/USD) may face further downside below $3,340 if dollar strength continues.
  

DXY Outlook

The U.S. dollar index is under pressure, unable to clear the critical resistance at 97.70. As long as it remains below this level, the bearish outlook for the greenback remains intact. A potential retest of 97.30 support opens the door for renewed downside momentum. Conversely, a reclaim of 97.70 could trigger a relief bounce, but a strong breakout is needed to reverse the trend.

EUR/USD Analysis

EUR/USD sits at sensitive levels between 1.1200 and 1.1275, which have flipped between support and resistance historically. A close above 1.1275 could spark short-covering and push toward 1.1500. However, failure to hold 1.1275 may expose the downside toward the lower end of the range. Thursday’s PMI data is pivotal and could define trade next week.

GBP/USD Technical Setup

On the weekly chart, GBP/USD has formed a bullish flag pattern. A decisive break above 1.3440 could open targets at 1.3630 and 1.3750. On the downside, if 1.3300 fails to hold, a corrective pullback toward 1.3200 or lower is plausible. Traders should wait for confirmation before making directional bets.

USD/CHF Move Potential

USD/CHF recently broke down from its ascending channel from July and now trades near 0.7918 support. This level is critical—break below could lead to further losses. Resistance is seen at 0.7970–0.7980, which may cap recovery attempts. The pair remains firmly bearish unless buyers regain control above the mentioned resistance.

XAU/USD Forecast

Gold is battling technical pressure. While it reclaimed its 2025 trend line on daily charts, it remains below that line on weekly charts. As long as gold trades under $3,340 weekly close, further downside is expected. Key support lies at $3,265 and $3,207. A break above $3,341 this week would offer short-term relief. Conclusion

This week’s forex landscape hinges on whether the DXY can sustain below its critical resistance, keeping broad dollar weakness intact. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are at make-or-break levels, awaiting PMI catalysts. USD/CHF remains in a bearish channel, and gold’s direction will depend heavily on dollar strength. Risk events and central bank commentary may trigger volatility—but the tone will likely follow key technical thresholds.