Why the Swiss Franc (CHF) Is a 2025 FX Wildcard What’s Behind USD/CHF Moves

In 2025, the Swiss franc isn’t acting like a typical “safe-haven” relic it’s showing structural strength, driven by monetary policy, macro fundamentals, and shifting risk flows. That makes USD/CHF one of the most interesting currency pairs to watch.

What’s driving the franc’s strength

• The SNB has held its policy rate at 0% since mid 2025. That’s among the lowest in major developed markets yet the franc remains firm.

• Underlying Swiss inflation remains modest and within the SNB’s comfort band of 0–2%. That reduces pressure to hike rates making the franc less vulnerable to domestic monetary tightening.

• Meanwhile, global uncertainty geopolitical tensions, tariffs, trade war fears, volatile global markets has pushed investors toward classic safe haven currencies. CHF gains when risk sentiment sours.

• Domestic fundamentals remain solid: Switzerland enjoys a strong current-account surplus, stable economy and healthy trade flows all reinforcing confidence in CHF as a stable currency.
  

What’s happening in USD/CHF

• In recent months USD/CHF dropped toward the mid-0.80 range, reflecting both dollar weakness (on expectations of U.S. monetary easing) and a firm Swiss franc.

• Even with zero rates and safe haven demand, the SNB is avoiding negative rates for now and seems to accept a stronger franc signaling that they don’t expect dramatic currency intervention soon.

• Because CHF strength stems from both external demand (safe haven flows) and internal fundamentals (trade surplus, stable inflation), USD/CHF could stay range bound or continue drift lower especially if global risk aversion returns.
  

What this means for traders and investors

• USD/CHF is no longer a predictable “carry” or interest rate play its value now depends heavily on risk sentiment, global macro shocks, and safe-haven flows.

• Long USD/CHF (betting on a strong dollar) is riskier, a dovish U.S. monetary outlook or new global shocks could strengthen CHF further, pushing the pair lower.

• For those wanting exposure to safe assets, CHF offers a clean alternative to gold or bonds with good liquidity, stability, and less volatility compared with other “risk off” assets.

In 2025, the Swiss franc has re emerged as a quiet powerhouse: low interest rates, stable inflation, and global uncertainty combine to make CHF a safe haven at scale. USD/CHF is now a barometer for global risk sentiment and a currency pair where bets on a strong dollar or safe Swiss haven need to be placed with eyes wide open.