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Investors Look Ahead as Bullish Momentum Persists and Earnings Season Approaches As the first quarter of 2024 draws to a close with impressive gains across major indices, investors are turning their attention to what lies ahead in the coming months. Despite record highs reached in March, including those for the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, market participants are keenly aware of the challenges and opportunities that await. The bullish sentiment that has characterised recent trading sessions reflects the ongoing momentum of the five-month-old rally. Futures trading indicates a positive start to the week, signalling confidence in the resilience of the market. While concerns about inflation persist, the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts has bolstered investor confidence in the economy's ability to weather current conditions. Looking ahead, investors are eyeing key events such as the release of the March jobs report, scheduled before U.S. markets open on Friday. Expectations for steady unemployment rates and moderate job growth underscore the importance of economic data in shaping market sentiment. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin closed March at $71,024, marking a notable uptick for the month. Despite some fluctuations, bullish sentiment remains strong, supported by favourable technical indicators and stable interest rates. While the upcoming week lacks major economic reports, events such as the OPEC meeting and the start of earnings season offer valuable insights into market trends and sentiment. Oil prices, up 16% so far in 2024, are closely watched amid concerns about supply disruptions. Earnings season, set to begin in the second week of April, will provide further clarity on corporate performance and economic health. Analysts expect modest earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, signalling continued resilience in the face of economic headwinds. As investors navigate evolving market dynamics, staying informed about earnings releases and macroeconomic trends will be crucial for making informed investment decisions. Despite the uncertainties ahead, the outlook remains positive for equities, supported by robust earnings and a resilient economy.

In what is being reported as a landmark collaboration, technology titans Microsoft and OpenAI are writing a $100 billion play in a move set to alter the very fabric of the artificial intelligence landscape. The highlight of this far-reaching initiative will be the unprecedented "Stargate" data center that starts operations in 2028. The effort, according to a report by The Information, underlines the ever-growing race among industry leaders in harnessing the transformative power of AI. The Stargate supercomputer is about to head the list of cutting-edge AI infrastructure developments and represents a bold leap into the future. Although the terms of the deal remain confidential, sources close to the talks say Microsoft will be leading the funding round. And with OpenAI being at the heart of innovation and with mighty resources from Microsoft, this may just be the deal that stretches the boundaries of AI. This partnership has much bigger implications than merely technology issues; this was a competitive earthquake, as analysts described it. While companies compete for a place at the top in the growing market of artificial intelligence, Copilot developed by Microsoft may well be one of the most promising AI assistants. Ben Reitzes, an analyst with Melius Research, underscores Copilot's core role in Microsoft's AI strategy as he sets it up for a potential leading position among all interfaces. With Copilot set to embed organically into Microsoft's suite of products, the tech giant positions itself for dominance in the AI ecosystem. While initial adoption of Copilot may be modest, analysts predict a paradigm shift in user behavior, with Copilot poised to emerge as the de facto interface for Generative AI. Positioning Microsoft's Copilot at the very forefront of innovation, traditional software applications are pivoting toward the integration of AI. Such a collaboration by Microsoft and OpenAI is one of the many announced in the ever-changing landscape of AI, ushering in new epochs of technological changes, industry disruptions, and "sets the stage for a transformative journey into the future of AI, with $100 billion earmarked for advancements in the realm.".

Bitcoin sharply shed 5% on Tuesday, wiping out more than $165 million in losses for leveraged traders and deepening the pain of the pounded cryptocurrency market after the dollar strengthened and upbeat U.S. factory data was reported. The crash sent Bitcoin tumbling from $69,450 to $65,970 in under 30 minutes, which is enough to power net liquidations above $165 million given the tremendous involvement of leveraged positions in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Heavy liquidations of longs also happened in Dogecoin and Solana, indicating wider market instability. Meanwhile, Tether, an American dollar-pegged stablecoin, briefly wobbled from its usual $1 peg as far as $0.988. For this, it further fed into the volatility of this market with unknown reasons within this crypto downtrend. This market turmoil came on the same day upbeat US factory data was released, which showed expansion in March. The manufacturing PMI by the Institute for Supply Management surged to 50.3, signaling growth for the first time since September 2022 and beating expectations. The surprise bounce ended expectations of Fed rate cuts-the dollar index burst above 105 for the first time since mid-November. Bitcoin fell below $66,500 during Asian hours, as the strong dollar depressed appetite for dollar-denominated assets like cryptocurrencies. The broader cryptocurrency market was also deep in the red, with Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin posting heavy losses as investors remained concerned by what the stronger dollar could do to dollar-denominated asset valuations. Still, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin because they put together the long-term tailwinds caused by fast Fed rate cuts amidst ballooning fiscal debt. This week, it again has a set of key economic reports in store, which includes non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. Hence, Bitcoin's near-term volatility could prevail accordingly. Since there is uncertainty in economics and rules are still in the works, the pricing of cryptocurrencies should remain quite volatile. This only underlines the risk management approach that becomes necessary within this ever-evolving crypto landscape.

April is finally here, and investors are very optimistic about how the stock market will perform during this month. Considering recent gains and uncertainties provided by the Federal Reserve, here's what investors need to consider: April's Historical Performance Historically speaking, April has been a very kind month to the stock market, with April and December considered the best two months since 1945, averaging 1.6%. The surprising fact about April, however, is that it's incredibly resilient during recessions; it has tallied some pretty hefty gains during economic mayhem. Tax Refunds and Market Boosts One of the theories that explains good performance by April is the introduction of cash into the market by investors from tax refunds. This has traditionally pushed the stock prices higher. In fact, April only shows losses twice in the past 18 years, hence an overall strong month. Adviser Insights While historical trends can be good guiding points, financial advisers always caution against basing any investment strategy on seasonality. Perhaps the biggest saying is that "time in the market beats timing the market." In trying to get a feel for when the market might move, investors could very well miss the whole thing altogether. Recent Market Sentiment Despite uncertainties related to the Federal Reserve decisions, market sentiment in the last period has been positive. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones recorded meaningful gains in the first quarter of 2024. Optimism about Artificial Intelligence, or simply AI, adds to positive market sentiment as well. Analyst Comments Analysts draw to a historical pattern of April being a good month for equities. According to Cory Mitchell, an analyst at Trading.biz , the S&P 500 has risen in 16 of the past 20 years during the month of April, with the average gain coming in at 2%. It's worth remembering that the past is not a predictor of the future. Fed's Stance Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has repeated the cautious Fed approach to changes in interest rates. Judging from Mr. Powell's comments, the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates even with unexpectedly soft economic data. Investors should remain cautious yet optimistic about the stock market. While historical trends indicate strong performance during this month, it's essential to maintain a diversified investment strategy and focus on long-term goals. By staying informed and adaptable, investors can navigate market fluctuations with confidence.

Dollar jumped to almost five-month high after upbeat economic data. U.S. manufacturing expanded in March for the first time in seven months-that is, since September 2022-on the back of solid improvement in new orders while inventories contracted. News that apparently cheered investors and forced them to take back their bets on the likelihood of a rate cut by Federal Reserve in June. According to the Institute for Supply Management, U.S. manufacturing expanded in March for the first time after 16 consecutive months of contraction, a growth supported by increased production and new orders, with the employment level still subdued, while input prices rose. The dollar index, which measures the dollar's performance against six major currencies, was 0.4% higher at 104.97. The upside bias was perpetuated by Friday's data showing the PCE price index, considered more in line with the targets of the Federal Reserve, rose slightly. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was content with the latest inflation data-a signal that the central bank is comfortable with the present level of inflation. Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief economist at the Bank of Singapore, also believes that so long as the Fed "is happy to tolerate" inflation above 2% and seriously thinks about rate cuts, it would be supportive for risk assets. Meanwhile, attention shifted to the Japanese yen, with renewed fears of intervention from Japanese authorities offsetting an advance that has taken it near levels not seen since 1990. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki emphasized that "the government is ready to act against excessive currency moves," which analysts took as a signal for intervention to steady the yen. In contrast, the euro and sterling were under downward pressure against the dollar. The single currency fell to its lowest level since mid-February, while sterling traded just shy of its December lows. Looking ahead, market participants will turn to U.S. labor market job openings data for more hints about the economy's health. On the rebound of the dollar, a turnaround would be more likely inspired by the data, reflecting that the trend of future economic indicators would continue to be what most determines the situation in the currency markets.

Former President Donald Trump's foray into the social media space with Truth Social suffered a serious setback when its stock plummeted 25% and lost more than $4 billion in value just one week after its public debut. Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group traded as "DJT" plunged 25% to $46 a share after blowing up to a high of $79 only days earlier. Trump is the majority in the company, and his investment went from 6.25 billion dollars to 3.64 billion dollars amid the freefall of the stock. The decline came as Trump Media revealed its poor financials: Full-year revenues of $4.1 million and an eye-watering net loss of $58.2 million in 2023. The revelation shed doubt on the valuation of the company, whose price-to-sales ratio was way above peers like Reddit and Snap. Undeterred by this, the valuation of Trump Media remains lofty-an unprecedented $6.7 billion in league with meme stocks like GameStop. Truth Social is positioning itself as a rival to technology giants such as Meta's Facebook. How it will get to profitability and grow revenue is very open to question. What's more, Trump's stake in the company is locked up for at least six months, offering him scant opportunities to realize any value from the stock. That might mean that Trump tries to get a waiver or borrows against his shares to ease any financial pressures, analysts said. Given how up in the air the future of Truth Social remains, this rollercoaster ride in its stock serves as a harbinger, signifying just how wild the social media landscape has gotten and how tough it is to convert that hype into growth that will last.

Investors are beginning to raise questions about whether Tesla CEO Elon Musk is the problem for Tesla Inc. after first-quarter delivery numbers fell below expectations in the electric vehicle maker's overall delivery of 386,783 vehicles, which points to issues in some parts at the company being blamed on Musk himself. A less-than-spectacular Q1 performance-the blame has been laid, from problems with the initial Model 3 production phase to shipping disruptions due to geopolitical tensions and even an arson attack at the Berlin factory-had already raised serious questions as to whether it would be able to meet Wall Street's already lowered earnings estimates. But with Tesla blaming exogenous factors for the miss, attention turns to Musk's deep engagement in other pursuits, including as CEO of X, aka Twitter, and an AI startup, Grok. Analysts have been stressing that Musk has to emphasize Tesla as the competition in the EV line increases rapidly. To some, Musk is burdening himself with commitments that will distract him from putting full attention towards making Tesla grow. What one analyst termed a "code-red situation." Besides, Musk can be loudmouthed and polarizing on social media platforms like X, and the effect that such behavior might have on perception of the Tesla brand and vehicle sales is in question. While the decline in Tesla's stock price following the delivery miss reflects investor unease, concerns extend beyond short-term performance. Caliber said Tesla's public opinion rating declined substantially, indicating potential reputational damage attributed, at least partly, to Musk's conduct. The delivery miss comes amid broader challenges for Tesla, including increased competition and shipping disruptions. Analysts added that Tesla needed to address the underlying issues with customer demand, mainly in the US, where Tesla faces considerable headwinds. While setbacks are growing, Tesla still seems fixated on innovation, particularly in the self-driving department. At the same time, these ambitious long-term plans probably do not jibe with existing market realities, raising some valuation questions by investors. Tesla is trading at some of the highest earnings multiples ever, raising overvaluation concerns compounded by uncertainties about its growth path. But while those struggles could provide opportunities for the long-term investor, there are enough uncertainties regarding Musk's leadership and the company's competitive positioning to underpin caution. Investors will be focused on Tesla's ability to regain momentum and stay competitive in a fast-changing EV market as it works its way through this.

The world is possessed of a few technological innovation poles, and Taiwan is one of them. Moreover, it is one of the big players in terms of placing on the world semiconductor market. Its strongest earthquake in 25 years hit it recently with rather heavy casualties and big infrastructure damage. How the earthquake unfolded and what this means to the world, hereby is discussed. Casualties and Infrastructure Damage: A 7.4-magnitude quake hit Taiwan Wednesday morning, indeed the strongest to hit Taiwan in a quarter-century. Authorities recorded the quake's epicenter 25 km south-southeast of Hualien County Hall. There are reports of widespread destruction, collapsed buildings, cracked roads, and reported landslides in Hualien as authorities refer to the district as an epicenter of the quake. Initial reports coming in show at least one dead and over 50 injured while rescue efforts continue. More Disasters Possible: The earthquake also brought up the aspect of other natural calamities that could happen. With continued aftershocks over the region, authorities say seismic events may occur in the days to come. Tsunami warnings issued for Taiwan, southern Japan, and the Philippines -are the primary cause of alarm over coastal damage. Effects on Neighboring Countries: Its effects rippled beyond Taiwan's borders, which began tsunami warnings in Japan and issued advisories to people for evacuations along coasts. Still on high alert, Japan braces neighboring countries for disruptions to coasts. The implication, in other words, is that it serves as a yardstick for seismic events emanating from literally any part of the globe and leaping across its length and breadth. Importance of Taiwan to Global Chip Manufacturing: Taiwan is one of the most significant semiconductor-supplying countries in the world, which hosts giant semiconductor companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, and United Microelectronics Corp., or UMC; each manufacturing chips for smartphones, cars, and consumer items has several plants. This resulted in compelling chipmakers TSMC and UMC to remove the workers from their facilities due to disruptions over chip production. Companies Affected: The aftershocks of the quake were echoed down the line along the technology sector, as companies reliant on Taiwan-based semiconductor makers took the ripple effect. TSMC - partly evacuating factories, and a key supplier for Apple and NVIDIA among others-fuelling fears of potential chip shortages. Disruption in chip production would make gadgets expensive internationally. Diversification Called for; Better Preparedness Urged That was an earthquake crisis, an acid test for natural disaster vulnerability faced by Taiwan's semiconductor industry. Long called for by governments and heads of the industry are the previsibility or preparedness of chip manufacturing and diversification. There is the U.S. Chips+ bill intended to spur domestic semiconductor production and the European Chips Act, which it claims will reduce dependency on single geography. A post-earthquake situation that has wracked Taiwan is preparing the global semiconductor industry for a storm. The apprehensions over chip supply disruptions and price volatility mount unabated. In such a case, the imperatives of building resilience through diversification and collaboration that would help in mitigating any potential impact brought on by calamities to such very important supply chains is underscored.

With the end of the first quarter of 2024, commodity markets continued to set up against a multi-factor backdrop. In the US, January's inflation numbers came in above consensus and injected uncertainty into the metals markets. Initially, this had dampened hopes of any near-term rate cut and weighed on near-term pressure on gold prices. However, the view of future rate cuts was enough to bring some upgrades to the consensus price forecasts. This February, the metals markets again took the cue from the macro-economic front in both the US and China. The US had published the inflation report that the Consumer Price Index increased 3.1% over the same month a year earlier in February. Another influencing factor for sentiments was that in China, the consumer price index tumbled and has seen its sharpest decline in 15 years. These were added to by the financial troubles of Evergrande in furthering this gloom in the economy. Strategic Outlook and Summary Global economic indicators, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical events are expected to be the leading drivers of market sentiment and commodities prices going forward. Investors are advised to remain vigilant and perform appropriate risk analysis when making trading decisions. Equity and Commodity Markets: Best and Worst Performers US Equity Markets: SP500 had an incredible gain buoyed by megacap tech stocks led higher by Nvidia and Microsoft. ASX 200 Resources Index: The index was able to advance 2.7% on the back of a positive view for the resources sector. Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged but opened a door to even three rate cuts within 2024. US Dollar Strength: The dollar index jumped up 1.4% and is a signal of continuous attraction to the US economy. Precious and Industrial Metals: Focus Gold: The month finished with gold at an all-time nominal high amidst monetary demand and geopolitical risks. Silver: For its part, silver's performance was relatively stable due to some industrial demand from the photovoltaic solar and semiconductor industries. Copper and Nickel: Copper surged after an agreement by major Chinese smelters to reduce output, while nickel rose on the back of fears about production quotas in Indonesia and expectations for rate cuts in the US. Lithium and Iron Ore: Lithium price fell into the red due to surplus inventories in China, while iron ore prices continued their trend of bouncing up and down with changing demand outlooks. Uranium: After having consolidated in recent weeks, the price has readjusted upward. The view is extremely positive, underpinned by the supply/demand fundamentals and the reawakened global interest in nuclear power. Energy Sector Dynamics: The rebound of the oil market was promoted by the strategies deployed by OPEC; this came in contrast to the maintained geopolitical tensions, while Natural Gas held divergent price behavior. LME Lead and Zinc: Zinc rebounded on the back of the tightening supply, while demand for lead remained subdued on account of slower-than-anticipated recovery in the economy. Chart of the Month - Copper: This shift to decarbonization underlines the importance of copper, while underinvestment in new copper mines challenges meeting the demand from the energy transition. This therefore implies that investors in commodity markets, whose ongoing uncertainties are deeply underpinned by global economic vagaries and geopolitical tensions, must be well-informed and agile in being able to seize such opportunities and reduce potential risks.

Bitcoin has made an astonishing return from the rather volatile action of the last days, reclaiming the $67,000 mark and showing some resilience after investor uncertainty has been ruling the market. After a period of turbulence which saw the Bitcoin price dip below $62,000, the cryptocurrency has surged back with intensity. BTC briefly reached $68,120.08 at the start of Thursday before settling at $66,828.32 later on in the day to represent a 6% climb over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data. Although Bitcoin has yet to regain its price from a week ago when it surged past $73,000 to set an all-time high, the recent rebound is an indication of underlying strength in the market. The cryptocurrency price drop earlier in the week also partly traced to unusual activity from a trader on crypto exchange BitMex. But the crypto operator explained that the incident did not affect its derivatives markets and showed investors that the platform remains stable. This, however, has failed to trickle down to the spot Bitcoin ETF flows despite the upward momentum in price. Investors for the third consecutive day pulled more money out of Bitcoin funds than they put in, redeeming $261 million worth of Bitcoin ETF shares yesterday alone. This is particularly evident in the massive outflow seen at Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, GBTC, alone, which posted investors redeeming $387 million worth of shares yesterday. That puts the net outflows for GBTC in the past week at $1.5 billion, a sure sign that investors have started turning their backs. Meanwhile, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT, has continued to haul in deposits to such a degree that it could soon dethrone GBTC as the leading spot Bitcoin ETF. Analysts are keeping a close eye on the price trajectory of Bitcoin after it fell below the $62,000 level, citing several variables contributing to this pullback, including profit-taking and speculation of the upcoming halving event. Analysts, therefore, remain very optimistic of Bitcoin's long-term outlook, judging by historical precedence. In any case, this is not new: such pre-halving price corrections have taken place many times earlier. During previous cycles, large price movements for Bitcoin predated the ongoing bull market. For instance, ahead of the 2020 halving, Bitcoin prices fell about 50%, a trend catalyzed by events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Afterwards, the cryptocurrency consolidated at around $10,000 and then went into a bull run in 2021. For example, in 2016, pre-halving, Bitcoin initially plunged about 33% and then rallied during the second half of the year to make new highs in the 2017 bull market. While the current halving cycle entails a unique set of challenges and uncertainties highlighted above, including the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs and, crucially, institutional backing, according to analysts, the fundamentals of Bitcoin remain strong and would expect a long-term resurgence in prices.

Apple Inc Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook made remarks in an interview with China Daily that explained how huge a role China would continue to play in the company's supply chain. The interview comes after reports of poor sales of the new iPhone models in China, and Cook sought to emphasize the importance of the nation's manufacturing abilities in the world. During his Shanghai visit, the chief executive of Apple reportedly had a meeting with BYD Chairman and President Wang Chuanfu. The meeting, held at the China headquarters of Apple, underscored the long-standing partnership between the two companies. A subsidiary under the Chinese EV maker, BYD Electronics, has been working in tandem with Apple for over 15 years, contributing to the creation of devices such as the iPhone and Vision Pro. Cooperation for Success: How Apple Continues to Partner with Suppliers in China Cook underlined the interdependence of Apple and Chinese suppliers and how it serves as a catalyst for innovation and productivity. Full of the recent reversals-like the falling sales of the iPhone in China-Cook sounded bullish over the prospects of the partnership in the future. China's Manufacturing Capability: The Bedrock of Apple's Supply Chain Cook also praised the manufacturing capability of China, saying that it has greatly improved over the past three decades. He promised the nation is catching his attention with its emphasis on automation, green manufacturing, and innovation-driven development, mentioning some leading-edge technologies from suppliers like BYD, Lens, and Everwin. Looking Ahead: China's Role in Apple's Future The Apple CEO has reiterated the company's commitment to the deepening of cooperation with Chinese partners as it prepares to open its eighth store in Shanghai and as it gets ready to attend the China Development Forum. That is because 151 of its 200 major suppliers are located in China, making the country's industrial ecosystem very critical to the global operations of Apple. Despite Apple's challenges in the Chinese market, the company still uses the country's manufacturing edge and innovation-driven development strategy for continuous growth and success. In this manner, the companies are together developing the changing environment of the tech industry, their relationship remaining at the core of the Apple worldwide strategy.

The Swiss National Bank has cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%, financial news wire Reuters reports. This compares to a consensus of forecasters that saw no rate cuts until the second half of this year and certainly nothing on the scale of what other major central banks have already done or plan to do.  In response, Swiss government bond yields saw their biggest fall in four months as the 10-year yield fell 7 basis points to 0.68%. The surprise rate cut by the SNB has sent huge reactions into the markets and brought several questions on the future course of Swiss monetary policy. Watch this space for more on this developing story.