Sterling steadied against the dollar on Monday after its biggest weekly jump since May last week as markets tempered expectations for an August rate cut from the Bank of England. Traders are now awaiting UK inflation data on Wednesday for more clues on interest rate policy. The pound was last down 0.1% against the dollar at $1.2979, following a 1.4% rise last week driven by upbeat growth data and commentary from BoE policymakers.
Key Takeaways:
Sterling steadied against the dollar after a significant weekly jump, reflecting market caution.
Traders await UK inflation data for clues on the BoE's interest rate policy.
The BoE's rate decision on August 1st could be influenced by the upcoming CPI report.
Sterling showed minimal movement against the euro, maintaining stability.
Market participants are focused on the inflation data's potential impact on the pound's trajectory.
Sterling's Recent Performance
The pound experienced its largest one-week jump since early March, rising 1.4% against the dollar last week. This surge was fueled by positive growth data and statements from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill, who indicated that the timing of the first interest rate cut remains an "open question." Despite the recent gains, Sterling steadied on Monday, reflecting market caution ahead of the upcoming inflation data release.
Focus on UK Inflation Data
Market participants are keenly awaiting the UK's consumer price data, set to be released by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect headline annual inflation to hold steady at 2%. The June CPI report could play a decisive role in influencing the BoE's rate decision on August 1st. Rabobank senior FX strategist Jane Foley noted, "Inflation data could be seen by the market as the decisive factor as to whether they do or don't cut rates."
BoE Rate Decision Speculation
Money market traders have priced in around 12.5 basis points of easing by the August meeting, implying around a 50% chance the BoE will cut its bank rate by a quarter point next month. The futures market puts around a 90% chance that the BoE will make a 25 bp move by September. Francesco Pesole, an FX strategist at ING, highlighted that the CPI data could tilt the balance for a rate cut decision: "Given that no BoE speakers are scheduled before the 1 August meeting, there are no strong reasons to expect a major loss of momentum for the pound this week, unless CPI data surprises on the downside."
Sterling vs. Euro Performance
While Sterling steadied against the dollar, it also showed minimal movement against the euro, with the pound down less than 0.1% at 84.08 pence per euro. This stability reflects the broader market sentiment as traders await more definitive economic indicators.
Conclusion
The UK pound's recent performance underscores the market's sensitivity to economic data and central bank signals. As traders and investors await the crucial CPI data and the BoE's upcoming rate decision, Sterling's trajectory will likely hinge on these pivotal developments. The inflation report on Wednesday could provide the necessary clarity for the BoE's next move, potentially impacting the pound's performance in the near term.
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